The early box office projections for the next Marvel film Thunderbolts are here. The film is currently tracking a $70 million opening. Thunderbolts is opening the first weekend of May. The first week of May is a pivotal release date for Marvel movies. The first weekend of May is considered the start of the summer movie season. Last year The Fall Guy starring Ryan Gosling, and Emily Blunt opened. The film bombed in theatres. The Fall Guy opened with $27.2 million domestically. It was made on a budget of $125 million. The final box office prospects were grim as well. The film finished with $181 million worldwide. It was a huge disappointment, as it was the first big non Marvel movie in years to take that release date. Deadpool and Wolverine was originally going to take that release date. Unfortunately due to the actors, and writers strikes, the film was not ready by then. Production was halted, until the strikes ended in November 2023. There were 4 months that went by where the film was put on hold. Thunderbolts, and previous Marvel entry Captain America Brave New World were also supposed to open last year. Both movies were effected by the strikes as well. Thunderbolts hadn’t started production yet, though it was delayed due to that.
How Do These Early Projections Compare To Previous Marvel Entries.
Most of the Marvel movies that have opened in the first weekend of May have opened with over $100 million. Thunderbolts projected to open at $70 million is a huge decline. Having said that, there are factors as to why that’s the case. The film is releasing after Captain America Brave New World. That film opened in February of this year. The new Captain America movie opened to $88 million worldwide. Unfortunately, the film bombed at the box office, and was panned by critics and audiences. Thunderbolts is coming after what many consider one of the worst MCU movies. It’s going to have a hard time pivoting from that. Not to mention recent Marvel show Daredevil has not had good ratings. While the reviews have been good, it hasn’t been able to engage viewers the way Marvel intended. It hasn’t shown up on any of the top 10 original charts. Marvel was betting on Daredevil to curve the flop of the new Captain America movie. Instead it’s poor viewership has continued the negative discourse around recent Marvel entries.
Many thought Marvel was back on track. Marvel had a huge box office hit with Deadpool and Wolverine last year. The film received positive reviews from critics, but they weren’t amazing though. Audiences on the other hand absolutely loved the movie. Deadpool and Wolverine made $1.338 billion worldwide. The Marvel series that released after that was Agatha All Along. That series was also very well received by fans. With Marvel bringing in Robert Downey Jr, and the Russo Brothers back for the next two part Avengers culmination, it seemed everything was back on track. However that turned out not to be the case with Captain America Brave New Worlds lacklustre box office performance. Marvel is betting hard on Thunderbolts, and The Fantastic Four: The First Steps to get Marvel back on track. Both teams are confirmed to appear in the next two Avengers movies.
What Does Thunderbolts Need To Do To Get Marvel Back On Track?
The reviews are going to be pivotal to Thunderbolts success. The film is going to need to get great reviews for critics, and audiences. If the film can hold an 80 percent critic score, and an audience score of 90 percent or more, it will be in good hands. Marvel movies that are successful make so much money off repeat value. Many audience members will champion these movies, and watch them multiple times in theatres. However that only happens when these movies are great. If the movies aren’t good, audiences will not show up for repeat viewings. Ant Man Quantumania is a perfect example of when it has gone wrong. The film opened with $104 million domestically back in February 2023. Unfortunately due to the bad reviews, the film didn’t hold well in it’s following weekends. Many audiences saw it the first weekend, but not many went back to watch it again. It dropped by 69% in its second weekend. Ant Man Quantumania is the worst reviewed MCU movie of all time. Although it did manage to be profitable due to UK tax credits, and revenue streams.
What is Thunderbolts Likely To Gross To Gross?
Based off the projections, the movie will likely gross $600-700 million, if it’s well received. It could potentially hit $800 million, but I don’t see it grossing any higher than that. It’s all going to depend on the reception to the movie. If the film gets good reviews, and reactions, it will be able to meet these expectations without hesitation. However if it doesn’t and the reviews are bad, you can expect another flop like Captain America Brave New World, and The Marvels. This will also be another interesting case to see how an MCU movie connected to the Disney plus shows performs at the box office. Doctor Strange and the Multiverse of Madness grossed over $900 million back in 2022. That movie tied in with Disney Plus show Wandavision. Fans of Wanda, and Elizabeth Olsens portrayal showed up to Doctor Strange big time. However it’s also gone horribly wrong with The Marvels. That film was extremely reliant on Disney Plus Marvel shows. It was interconnected with Ms Marvel, Wandavision, and Secret Invasion. The Marvels grossed $206 million a budget of $374 million. That film is one of the biggest box office flops of all time. Thunderbolts is connected to Falcon and the Winter Soldier. It will interesting to see which direction Thunderbolts follows suit when it opens May 2nd.
Be the first to comment